Housing Market Forecast for the Jersey Shore: Will 2026 Be a Good Year?
Short answer up front: “Good” depends on who you are.
For sellers and owners of desirable Shore towns (waterfront, upgraded, low-flood-risk, or in-demand summer towns), 2026 currently looks like it could be a modestly positive year — steady to small price gains if mortgage rates drift lower and inventory stays tight. For buyers, affordability will still be the main issue unless rates fall substantially; opportunities will exist in weaker price bands and inland Shore towns. (Barron's)
Below, I explain why, what could change the outlook, and practical steps for buyers and sellers.
What the data is saying now (key points)
Mortgage rates are the single biggest swing factor. Economists and surveys say rates need to move meaningfully below ~5.5–6% to rekindle broad buyer demand; at ~6% demand is soft but not collapsing. If rates fall toward that threshold in 2026, sales and price growth will get a noticeable lift. (Barron's)
Jersey Shore counties show mixed but generally stable price trends. Monmouth County shows year-over-year price gains in many reports (median/typical prices roughly in the $700k range), while Ocean County and some South Jersey shore areas are up modestly (or holding steady), depending on the source and segment. Luxury and highly desirable beach towns remain strongest. (Redfin)
Inventory and days-on-market matter locally. Many Shore towns still have relatively low active inventory and fast sale times for well-priced homes, which supports price resilience; other locations are softer and see longer marketing times. That means local micro-markets (town-by-town, price-band-by-price-band) will vary. (Redfin)
Affordability is an ongoing constraint. National studies show that rising rates plus higher purchase costs have pushed affordability down—so even if prices are steady, many buyers feel priced out until mortgage rates come down or incomes rise. (Investopedia)
Seasonal/destination demand and regulation matter at the Shore. The Jersey Shore is driven partly by second-home and seasonal demand; that can cushion downside but also creates a bifurcated market (premium for beach block/waterfront vs. weaker inland markets). Local regulatory changes (short-term rental rules, flood insurance costs) can also shift investor appetite quickly. (Inquirer.com)
Scenarios that would make 2026 “good” vs “bad”
Good (for prices & sellers): Mortgage rates fall under ~5.5%, local inventory remains tight, employment and incomes stay healthy — that would likely produce modest positive appreciation across many Shore towns. (Barron's)
Bad (for prices & sellers): Rates stay high or climb, regional economy weakens, or a surge of listings (motivated sellers) increases inventory — that would likely cool or even push small declines in weaker segments. (Barron's)
What to watch in the next 6–12 months
Fed policy and the 30-year mortgage rate trajectory. (Biggest macro lever.) (Barron's)
Local inventory and days-on-market in the towns you care about (Monmouth, Ocean, Cape May, Atlantic counties differ). (Zillow)
Local policy shifts — short-term rental rules, flood insurance premiums, buyout/floodplain programs. (Inquirer.com)
Employment, wage growth, and local migration patterns (people trading city for shore living). (Jackie Scura Real Estate)
Practical advice (based on your goal)
If you’re a seller:
Price at the right market level and stage renovations that give clear value (kitchen/bath, flood mitigation). Coastal demand still rewards turnkey properties. Expect multiple offers on the best listings, but don’t assume every property will. (Redfin)
If you can wait and rates fall, you’ll likely get more buyers — but if you need liquidity now, the market is still workable in many towns.
If you’re a buyer:
Lock financing now if you find a property you love and the rate is acceptable — or use a float-down/lock strategy if available. Continued high rates are the main barrier; if rates fall later, refinancing is possible. (Barron's)
Focus searches on towns/price bands with longer days-on-market or inland neighborhoods for better negotiation leverage. Watch out for flood zones and insurance costs on the Shore. (Redfin)
If you’re an investor/short-term rental owner:
Check local short-term rental rules (some towns tighten regulations) and rising operating costs (insurance, utilities). High-quality, well-managed rentals in top locations still perform, but your margin depends on regulation and insurance. (Adam DAnnunzio Shore Real Estate Search)
Quick neighborhood snapshot (high-level)
Monmouth County (Asbury, Long Branch, Rumson, etc.) — generally resilient, strong demand for waterfront and upgraded properties. (Redfin)
Ocean County (Point Pleasant, Seaside, etc.) — mixed: steady in many towns; inland sections more price sensitive. (Redfin)
Cape May & Atlantic City area — seasonal demand keeps some pockets strong; others are more affordable and active for buyers. (tcjonline.com)
Bottom line
For owners and sellers of desirable Jersey Shore properties, 2026 looks likely to be at least stable, with modest upside if mortgage rates ease and the economy remains healthy. For buyers, 2026 will still be challenging on affordability unless rates move meaningfully lower — but there will be tactical buying opportunities in softer locations and price bands. (Barron's)
Market Trends for 2025
It all begins with an idea.
In 2025, Monmouth County's real estate market is experiencing notable trends, particularly in home prices and the adult community sector.
Home Prices and Market Activity
Rising Home Values: As of December 2024, the median listing home price in Monmouth County reached $764,900, marking a 2% year-over-year increase.
Inventory Decline: The number of homes for sale decreased by 9.8% from December 2024 to January 2025, indicating a tightening market.
Adult Community Sector
Increased Sales: December 2024 saw a 51.5% surge in closed sales within adult communities, highlighting strong demand for 55+ housing.
Price Adjustments: Despite robust sales, median prices in this sector fell by 8.7% to $547,915, suggesting a more buyer-friendly environment.
Sustainable and Affordable Housing Initiatives
Sustainable Jersey Certification: Monmouth County municipalities are actively participating in the Sustainable Jersey program, aiming to implement eco-friendly actions and achieve certification.
Affordable Housing Efforts: Organizations like the Affordable Housing Alliance are dedicated to providing safe, affordable housing options, continuously seeking new avenues to support residents.
Flood Mitigation Measures
Buyouts and Barriers: In response to climate change, New Jersey is employing strategies such as home buyouts in flood-prone areas and constructing floodwalls in regions like Middletown to enhance resilience.
These trends reflect a dynamic real estate landscape in Monmouth County, influenced by market forces, demographic shifts, and proactive community initiatives.
Looking into buying?
Before you even start looking at homes, you should get pre-approved for your mortgage. It’ll give you clarity on what you can borrow and help you feel more confident in your ability to get a home loan. If you’re ready to get pre-approved, connect with a trusted lender to learn more.
Before you even start looking at homes, you should get pre-approved for your mortgage. It’ll give you clarity on what you can borrow and help you feel more confident in your ability to get a home loan. If you’re ready to get pre-approved, connect with a trusted lender to learn more.
Before you even start looking at homes, you should get pre-approved for your mortgage.